Sweet 16 - 2013

There may not be any future NBA superstars among the players remaining in the NCAA Tournament. There are certainly some solid future pros. Here is a glance at the 16 players we are paying the most attention to (from an NBA scouting perspective) in the 2013 Men's Basketball Sweet 16. 

Even with goofy pants - Cody is a prospect. 

Cody Zeller - Indiana 6'11" 230 - Center. Sophomore. ...Zeller is a real weapon in college basketball. There just aren't many teams with a kid as big and as skilled as Zeller is. He averages 16 points and eight rebounds per game.  Cody is the younger brother of Luke and Tyler Zeller, both NBA players. Cody is perhaps a bit more rugged than Tyler, and Cody has a slightly higher career efficiency rating than his Cleveland Cavalier brother.  Cody understands that he is a BIG man and he does not try to do things outside his game.  This understanding of his role allows him to shoot 59% FG (career) - due to his excellent shot selection. He shoots 75% FT for his career. ...Zeller can improve by turning the ball over less. He gets caught off-balance too often despite good ball-handling skills for a Center.  

Victor Oladipo - Indiana 6'5" 214 - Shooting Guard. Junior. ...Oladipo is an athletic wing guard that plays both ends of the floor. He is the rare shooting guard that shoots over 50% from the field (presently at 54.5% FG for his three seasons at IU). He has great speed and the ability to create off the dribble. He has greatly improved his three-point percentage this season but his career number is probably a better indicator (33.3 %). Oladipo also helps as a rebounder. Not too many guards get you 6.4 rebounds per game - but Oladipo does! He was recently named The Sporting News 2013 Player of the Year. Defensively, he was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. ...Oladipo also can improve by cutting down on the turnovers. He has more turnovers than assists for his career. 

Ben McLemore - Kansas 6'5" 185 - Shooting Guard. Freshman. ...I really hope McLemore stays in school at least another year. He shows flashes of brilliance but is not yet the consistent player that I think he can become. He is special due to his combination of shooting accuracy and athletic ability. McLemore's touch is evident in his 87% free throw shooting, and his 41% three-point accuracy. He averages 16 points, five rebounds, and two assists per contest. 

Gardner makes the Cosby face.

Davante Gardner - Marquette 6'8" 290 - Power Forward. Junior. ...Gardner is a load to handle in the low-post. He is nimble and he has a soft touch for such a BIG dude. He was the Big East Sixth Man of the Year. Gardner shoots an impressive 79% FT - career. Defensively, he eats space but he is not a shot blocker. He averaged 11.5 points and 4.8 rebounds this season, playing just 21.3 minutes per game. 

Arsalan Kazemi - Oregon 6'8" 226 - Power Forward. Senior. ...Kazemi has a motor that seemingly churns twice as fast as his opponents. Non-stop energy is his calling card. The Iranian National Team member started his college career at Rice but has now landed at Oregon. He is a terrific rebounder and defender that was named to the Pac-12 All Defensive Team. For his NCAA career - he shoots 55% FG. 

Jeff Withey - Kansas 7'0" 235 - Center. Senior.. ...Withey is a shot-blocker that also has a little bit of an offensive game. For his size, he is quick off his feet - which allows him to block shots at a high rate. He leads my database of tournament players in 'blocks per minute', and his career 'blocks per minute' rate is better historically than noted shot-blockers John Henson, and Andre Drummond. Withey can step out to hit a face-up shot or score around the rim. The 23 year-old Senior was a unanimous All Big 12 selection. He shoots 72% from the free throw line. 

DeShaun Thomas - Ohio St. 6'7" 221 - Small Forward. Junior. ...You need a bucket? Thomas will get you one. He scores inside and outside. He scores on three-point shots, and post-ups. He hits wing jumpers, and paint floaters. In short, Thomas is a SCORER. His NCAA career 'points per minute' rate is better than noted scorer, Jordan Crawford (Xavier, Boston Celtics). 

Southerland needs more hype

James Southerland - Syracuse. 6'8" 215 - Small Forward. Senior. ...Southerland doesn't receive the hype some of his teammates do - but Southerland is probably a future NBA player due to his combination of size and shooting ability. He shoots 40% from beyond the arc. ...He averages 13.7 points, and 5.3 rebounds per game. ...Other scouts view him as a power forward but I think his NBA future will be as a wing. He does have a positive career assist-to-turnover ratio. 

Michael Carter Williams - Syracuse. 6'5" 176 - Point Guard. Sophomore.  ...Carter-Williams boasts a 2.36-to-1 assist to-turnover ratio which is not often seen in a dynamic, young guard. He is long, and lean and he has terrific explosion in his decisive moves on the court. His length makes him a tough match up for smaller point guards. Carter-Williams is still learning the value of shot selection. His career field goal percentage is just 39%. He helps his team on the boards, and he can create his own shot off the dribble. ...Carter-Williams has a "red-flag" for being caught shoplifting during his stay in Syracuse (Read this). He was a 2011 McDonald's All-American. I think he has the highest ceiling of any point guard in the Tournament. 

Mitch McGary - Michigan. 6'10" 263 - Power Forward. Freshman.  ...McGary has legitimate NBA size and rebounding ability. He was recently added to Michigan's starting lineup and he has made them a better team. McGary is averaging 17 points and 11.5 rebounds per game in the 2013 Tournament to date. He shoots 59% FG. ...Read this about McGary's open attitude about living with A.D.H.D. 

Russ Smith - Louisville. 6'0" 160 - Shooting Guard. Junior. ...The best pure scorer remaining in the Tournament is Russ Smith. He loves to shoot, and he will jack up some questionable shots. But Louisville would be lost without him. Smith helps his team get through rough offensive stretches with his short memory, and aggressive play. For his career, Smith has the same number of assists as turnovers. He shoots 34% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the line. 

Gorgui Dieng - Louisville. 6'10" 220 - Center. Junior. ...The Center with the highest ceiling is Gorgui Dieng. Although a 23 year-old junior, Dieng is still considered to be a player that is ascending. Defensively, he is a force. He moves his feet extremely well and he blocks or alters a high percentage of opponents' shots in the paint. (Dieng's blocks per minute are historically equal to JaVale McGee's numbers.) While Dieng is still raw offensively, he has shown enough to make me believe he will continue to improve. He is just a career 65% free throw shooter. 

Burke listens to his coach

Trey Burke - Michigan. 5'11" 180 - Point Guard. Sophomore. ...The best in the college game at running a team (in my opinion) is Trey Burke. He is a diminutive yet highly confident and skilled point guard. While not blessed with supreme athleticism or length, Burke closes the gap on the deficiencies with his high basketball I.Q., and leadership ability. Burke has an excellent 2.42-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and he can also put the ball in the basket. He averages 19.2 points per game. Sports Illustrated named Burke their National Player of the Year for 2012-13. 

Glenn Robinson III - Michigan. 6'6" 210 - Shooting Guard. Freshman. ...The son of the "Big Dog" is an elite transition player that electrifies fans in the open court. His finishing ability helped him shoot an impressive 57% FG as a freshman. He also has an impressive assist-to-turnover ratio which speaks to his ability to make smart basketball decisions. Robinson's father, Glenn, was the first overall pick of the 1994 NBA Draft. 

C.J. Fair - Syracuse. 6'7" 216 - Small Forward. Junior. ...Fair just looks like a pro. He has a prototypical NBA wing body and an ever-improving skill set to match. This season the lefty became a legitimate three-point threat - hitting 49.2% from deep. he has improved his scoring and rebounding averages in each of his three seasons. I like Fair because he still has plenty of room for improvement. 


Mason Plumlee - Duke. Senior. 6'11" 245. ...Plumlee has NBA size, and he can finish above the rim. He averaged 17 points and ten rebounds per game this season, and he is unquestionably improving. However, Plumlee is not as high on my board as he may be on other boards. I think he is a quality college BIG-man but I'm not as sure about him as a pro.  He turns it over nearly two times for every one assist. He shoots only 57% from the line for his career (although he raised that to 67% FT this season). Plumlee is already 23 years-old.

15 Shooting Guards to watch in the NCAA Tournament

The shooting guards to watch in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament are a talented group...

Ben McLemore - Kansas. Freshman. 6'5" 185. 

Jamaal Franklin - San Diego St. Junior. 6'5" 195. 

Victor Oladipo - Indiana. Junior. 6'5" 214. 

D.J. Stephens - Memphis. Senior. 6'5" 187. 

P.J. Hairston - North Carolina. Sophomore. 6'6" 217. 

Pierce Hornung - Colorado St. Senior. 6'5" 210.  

Reggie Bullock - North Carolina. Junior. 6'6" 190. 

Shabazz Muhammed - UCLA. Freshman. 6'6" 223. 

Will Clyburn - Iowa St. Senior. 6'7" 210. 

Marcus Smart - Oklahoma St. Freshman. 6'3" 200. 

Traveon Graham - VCU. Sophomore. 6'5" 215. 

Glenn Robinson III - Michigan. Freshman. 6'6" 210. 

Allen Crabbe - Cal. Junior. 6'6" 205. 

Michael Frazier II - Florida. Freshman. 6'4" 200. 

Russ Smith - Louisville. Junior. 6'0" 160. 

Small Forwards to watch in the 2013 NCAA Tournament

There is no shortage of good wing players in college basketball. Here are the 15 small forwards we will pay the most attention to in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament...

Doug McDermott - Creighton. Junior. 6'8" 225. 

Andre Roberson - Colorado. Junior. 6'7" 210. 

Otto Porter Jr. - Georgetown. Sophomore. 6'8" 200. 

Elias Harris - Gonzaga. Senior. 6'7" 215. 

T.J. Warren - N.C. State. Freshman. 6'8" 223. 

Melvin Ejim - Iowa St. Junior. 6'6" 230. 

DeShaun Thomas - Ohio St. Junior. 6'7" 221. 

James Southerland - Syracuse. Senior. 6'8" 210. 

Ryan Broekhoff - Valparaiso. Senior. 6'7" 215. 

Jordan Dykstra - South Dakota St. Junior. 6'8" 225. 

C.J. Fair - Syracuse. Junior. 6'7" 200. 

Rodney Williams - Minnesota. Senior. 6'7" 205. 

Solomon Hill - Arizona. Senior. 6'6" 206. 

Kevin Young - Kansas. Senior. 6'8" 190. 

Ethan Wragge - Creighton. Junior. 6'7" 225. 

Power Forwards to watch in the 2013 NCAA Tournament

Here is a glance at 15 power-forwards we will be watching closely from a NBA scouting perspective in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. 

Mr. Efficiency, DeQuan Hicks. 

DeQuan Hicks - Northwestern St. Junior. 6'7" 230. ...I did a double take when I computed his efficiency rating. Surely I made a typo and punched in the wrong numbers. I re-checked. No mistake. Hicks owns a .808 efficiency rating - which is "through the roof" in per minute production. As a matter of fact, Hicks' points per minute rate ranks 'tops in the tournament' in my database. Hicks has scored nearly 400 points in 562 minutes. He ranks tenth in the nation in field goal percentage at 58%. While the sample size is relatively small, the overall production for a guy that only plays 20 minutes a game is phenomenal. He should, at a minimum, be on your radar. You can see him in some highlights here. He's number 32 in blue. 

Anthony Bennett - UNLV. Freshman. 6'8" 240. ...Bennett was recently named the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year. He has a chance to be the overall number one pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. He averages 16 points and eight rebounds per game. Bennett is adept inside the paint or on the perimeter. He is very fluid on the floor - covering ground quickly for such a big and powerful player. He scores easily, at a high rate per-minute. He shoots 53% FG, and 70% FT. He steps out to the three point line and hits 37% of those attempts (36 of 95 this season). He does look a bit "soft" from a conditioning standpoint. 

Jack Cooley - Notre Dame. Senior. 6'9" 248. ...A first-team All Big East selection, Cooley is among the best defensive rebounders in college basketball. He averaged double figures in points and rebounds in the 2012-13 Big East season. He is BIG and he is smart. He shoots 65% FG for his career due to his size, and the way he positions himself around the hoop. He could certainly be a better foul shooter (just 65% FT - career), and he has more turnovers than assists, but Cooley doesn't take any plays off, and he rarely, if ever, takes a bad shot. 

DaVante Gardner - Marquette. Junior. 6'8" 290. ...Gardner is a load to handle in the low-post. He is nimble and he has a soft touch for such a BIG dude. He was the Big East Sixth Man of the Year. Gardner shoots an impressive 79% FT - career. Defensively - he eats space but he is not a shot blocker. He averaged 11.5 points and 4.8 rebounds this season, playing just 21.3 minutes per game. 

Kazemi wrecks the rim

Arsalan Kazemi - Oregon. Senior. 6'8" 226. ...Kazemi has a motor that seemingly churns twice as fast as his opponents. Non-stop energy is his calling card. The Iranian National Team member started his college career at Rice but has now landed at Oregon. He is a terrific rebounder and defender that was named to the Pac-12 All Defensive Team. For his NCAA career - he shoots 55% FG. 

Trevor Mbakwe - Minnesota. Senior. 6'8" 245. ...Mbakwe has battled back from a torn ACL in his right knee (11/27/2011) to impact the paint for Minnesota. He led the Big Ten in both total rebounds, and offensive rebounds per game. He owns a career field goal percentage of 57%. He is powerful and athletic. ...He has more turnovers than assists and his free throw percentage is only 62%. 

Kyle Anderson - UCLA. Freshman. 6'9" 235. ...You could call Kyle Anderson a small forward or even a guard. The versatile Bruin is really just a good basketball player that I project to wind up as a power forward in the Lamar Odom mode. Anderson played point guard in high school where his team lost only once in two seasons. He looks like he's going in slow motion but he is undeniably effective. He averages 9.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. He has a 7'2" wingspan! I'd call him a small forward if he were a better three-point shooter (only 21% 3-pt.). 

Laurence Bowers - Missouri. Senior. 6'8" 227. ...Bowers returned to action this season after sitting out all of 2011-12 due to a torn ACL in his left knee. He came back as a better long range shooter. Bowers is now routinely stretching defenses out to the college three point line where he hit 39% of his long-ball attempts. He averages 14 points per game. Bowers has an outside chance to play some small forward too at the next level. His decision making and ball-handling are not quite at SF level yet in my opinion. 

Richard Howell - N.C. State. Senior. 6'8" 257. ...One of the reasons that N.C. State has been generally successful is the dependable play of Richard Howell. He improved his scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals averages with each season in the NCAA. This season, Howell scored 12.7 points per game while grabbing 10.7 rebounds per outing. He was named second team All-ACC (coaches). 

McGary eats boards

Mitch McGary - Michigan. Freshman. 6'10" 263. ...McGary has legitimate NBA size and rebounding ability. He impacts Michigan games the moment he checks in. McGary averages 5.5 boards per game in just 17.7 minutes per contest. He shoots 57% FG. ...Read this about McGary's open attitude about living with A.D.H.D. 

Perry Ellis - Kansas. Freshman. 6'8" 225. ...He is coming off a Big 12 Tournament where he averaged 14.3 points per game. Ellis provides a spark off the Jayhawks bench. 

Branden Dawson - Michigan St. Sophomore. 6'6" 220. ...Dawson returned from a torn ACL (March 2012) to show what a capable power player he can be. He rebounds the ball extremely well and he seems to understand his limitations. The result is 56% FG accuracy. Defensively, he can guard virtually any position on the floor. Dawson has already publicly stated he plans to return for his junior season. 

Jake Cohen - Davidson. Senior. 6'10" 235. ...One of the best shooting big men in the tournament is Jake Cohen. He has worked to make himself a legitimate "stretch-four" prospect. He improved his three point shooting percentage with each of his four seasons. This season he shot 50% FG, 38% 3-pt, and 82% FT. He averages 14.8 points per game. 

Christian Watford - Indiana. Senior. 6'9" 232. ...Watford has turned into a deadly three point shooter (49% 3-pt). He is a bit of a "tweener" between a small forward and a power forward but he can REALLY shoot the ball. His 82% FT reflects his great touch. 

Mike Moser - UNLV. Junior. 6'8" 230. ...Moser may not be 100 percent yet after missing games due to a dislocated elbow suffered in December 2012. Moser has some small forward skills but he isn't dependable enough of a perimeter shooter to be called an effective wing player. At the PF, Moser can rebound at a high enough rate and provide some offense to boot. 

Centers to watch in the 2013 NCAA Tournament

As much as experts continue to try to write off the fate of the BIG-man in modern basketball, it remains a fact that talented BIG players are still consistently the most efficient prospects. Shooting closer to the rim, or at the rim, produces a higher field goal percentage. A higher field goal percentage leads to more wins. Defensively - a talented BIG-man can help protect your basket and force opponents into taking shots further from the hoop - which leads to a lower field goal percentage for the opponent. ...SO... The Center - is still vital, especially in the NCAA - where there simply is not a LeBron James type hybrid talent.  

Our list of 15 Centers to watch from an NBA scouting perspective: 

Cody goes strong

Cody Zeller - Indiana. Sophomore. 6'11" 230. ...Zeller is the younger brother of Cleveland Cavaliers Center Tyler Zeller. Cody is very similar to Tyler as far as his NBA prospects are concerned. Cody knows his role, and understands that he is a BIG-man. He doesn't shy from contact. He scores 17 points per game (60% FG - career) while grabbing eight rebounds per contest this season. He is not much of a shot blocker nor is he the best passing big man but Zeller runs the floor exceptionally well and he can finish around the hoop with either hand. He is also among a select group of BIG-men that shoots over 75% from the line. 

Jeff Withey - Kansas. Senior. 7'0" 235. ...Withey is a shot-blocker that also has a little bit of an offensive game. For his size, he is quick off his feet - which allows him to block shots at a high rate. He leads my database of tournament players in blocks per minute, and his career blocks per minute rate is better historically than noted shot-blockers John Henson, and Andre Drummond. Withey can step out to hit a face-up shot or score around the rim. The 23 year-old Senior was a unanimous All Big 12 selection. He shoots 72% from the free throw line. 

Kelly Olynyk - Gonzaga. Junior. 7'0" 238. ...Olynyk is a kid that continues to improve. He was recently named the West Coast Conference Player of the Year. He raised his scoring, and rebounding averages with each season, while also bettering his free throw percentage yearly. He averages 17.5 points (on 65% FG), and seven rebounds per game this season. He is a nimble BIG-man with legitimate NBA size. He has a decent touch (he shoots 71% FT- career), and he runs the floor very well for his size. 

Mike Muscala - Bucknell. Senior. 6'11" 239. ...Muscala is a two-time Patriot League Player of the Year. He was not only the Player of the Year this season but also the Defensive Player of the Year, and the Scholar Athlete of the Year in the Patriot League. He has both a face-up and a low post, back-to-the-basket game. Muscala is a gym-rat that uses either hand well around the hoop. He is praised by all as a hard worker. 

Don't bring it.

Gorgui Dieng - Louisville. Junior. 6'10" 220. ...The Center with the highest ceiling is Gorgui Dieng. Although a 23 year-old junior, Dieng is still considered to be a player that is ascending. Defensively - he is a force. He moves his feet extremely well and he blocks or alters a high percentage of opponents shots in the paint. (Dieng's blocks per minute are historically equal to JaVale McGee's numbers.) While Dieng is still raw offensively - he has shown enough to make me  believe he will continue to improve. He is just a career 65% free throw shooter. 

Reggie Johnson - Miami. Senior. 6'10" 307 (or more) ...Johnson was already a big kid when he suffered a knee injury. Post knee-injury, he ballooned up in weight and has found it difficult to get onto the floor in Miami's rotation. Johnson has all the tools a BIG-man could ask for. He has soft hands, a big behind, and a natural nose for the ball. He is capable of scoring in double figures, and rebounding likewise. But the bottom-line is that - due to the knee injury or a lack of discipline, Johnson is so horribly out of shape - I am no longer taking him seriously as a NBA prospect. 

Mason Plumlee - Duke. Senior. 6'11" 245. ...Plumlee has NBA size, and he can finish above the rim. He averaged 17 points and ten rebounds per game this season, and he is unquestionably improving. However, Plumlee is not as high on my board as he may be on other boards. I think he is a quality college BIG-man but I'm not as sure about him as a pro.  He turns it over nearly two times for every one assist. He shoots only 57% from the line for his career (although he raised that to 67% FT this season). Plumlee is already 23 years-old.

Adreian Payne - Michigan St. Junior. 6'9" 242. ...Payne is another kid that has improved his game dramatically since I first saw him play as a freshman. He is now a BIG that can step out and stretch defenses with his improved perimeter shooting. Inside the paint, Payne has a quick second jump and he will try to dunk everything he can. He still struggles with ball handling - coughing up nearly three turnovers for every one assist. 

Birch tree. 

Khem Birch - UNLV. Sophomore. 6'9" 220. ...Birch is an explosive leaper that plays bigger than his listed 6'9" height. He was the 2012-13 Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year. A career 55% FG shooter, Birch scores sparingly but he impacts the game by being seemingly everywhere in the paint. He had four conference games this season with five blocks or more. Birch, from Montreal, Canada - originally played college ball at Pittsburgh before transferring to Las Vegas. 

Gregory Echenique - Creighton. Senior. 6'9" 260. ...Echenique is a 'hard-hat' Center from Venezuela. As a college BIG-man - he gets the job done. He is a good rebounder. There is nothing spectacular in his game, just solid post play offensively and defensively. I don't see much of a ceiling for Echenique. He may have already peaked when you consider his scoring has dipped in the last three seasons. 

Jon Horford - Michigan. Sophomore. 6'10" 250. ...He plays nine minutes per game, but Horford has been efficient during his rare time on the floor. Horford has the ability to knock down a face-up shot and he shows a really nice touch for a BIG (75% FT - career). Jon's older brother Al plays for the Atlanta Hawks. It may not be Jon Horford's time just yet but he's worth keeping an eye on. 

Brad Waldow - Saint Mary's. Sophomore. 6'9" 260. ...Waldow is a "wide-body" that shoots an impressive 65% FG for his brief two year career at Saint Mary's. The space-eating BIG-man needs to improve his free throw shooting (51% FT), and he needs to be better passing out of double teams (more than 2.5 turnovers per assist). With his big backside, Waldow can establish low post position with ease. He looks poised to be a prime-time performer for the Gaels in the seasons to come. 

Ryan Kelly - Duke. Senior. 6'11" 230. ...The best shooting BIG-man in the tournament is Ryan Kelly. He is deadly from three point range (48% 3-pt. this season). He made seven three point shots in Duke's win over Miami (March 2nd). ...At the line, Kelly shoots an impressive 80% - career. He improved his points, assists, and three-point shooting percentage in each his of his four seasons at Duke. 

Alex Kirk - New Mexico. Sophomore. 7'0" 250. ...Kirk provided a presence for New Mexico in the Mountain West but his 48% FG - career is huge red flag to me. A seven-footer should be much better than 48% FG. Will Kirk be able to "show, and recover" on defense in the NBA? That is the main question regarding his future. Kirk is a BIG boy. He is not the fleetest afoot but he can cause problems by taking space. He will shoot three point shots, although not very well (28% 3-pt. career). 

Steven Adams - Pittsburgh. Freshman. 7'0" 240. ...Adams is a 19 year-old Center from New Zealand. He blocks shots, rebounds, and hits an efficient 56% of his field goal attempts. He runs the floor very well and he has good hands. But he is a work in progress as a shooter, really struggling at the free throw line where he makes a putrid 42%. He has a reputation as a kid with a great motor - so let's see how he develops. 

Point Guards to Watch in the 2013 NCAA Tournament

In any basketball contest - the player who handles the ball the most is a crucial component. Here is a look at the 15 point guards in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament that we will be watching the closest from an NBA scouting perspective...

Michael Carter Williams - Syracuse. Sophomore. 6'5" 176 ...Carter-Williams boasts a 2.36-to-1 assist to-turnover ratio which is not often seen in a dynamic, young guard. He is long, and lean and he has terrific explosion in his decisive moves on the court. His length makes him a tough match up for smaller point guards. Carter-Williams is still learning the value of shot selection. His career field goal percentage is just 39%. He helps his team on the boards, and he can create his own shot off the dribble. ...Carter-Williams has a "red-flag" for being caught shoplifting during his stay in Syracuse (Read this). He was a 2011 McDonald's All-American. I think he has the highest ceiling of any point guard in the Tournament. 

Nate Wolters - South Dakota St. Senior. 6'4" 190. ..."Nater's Gonna Nate". That is the slogan for Nate Wolters who seems to always find a way to score, and hit big shots. Wolters - the Summit League Player of the Year, and MVP of their conference tournament, is a complete player that fills the stat sheet with whatever his team needs. He often looks to score which led to him pumping in a Division-1 best, 53 points in a game this season (vs. IPFW). At 6'4", Wolters is usually bigger than the opposing point guard and he uses his gym-rat senses to do damage. ...I project Wolters as a low-tier starter in the NBA. 

Trey Burke - Michigan. Sophomore. 5'11" 180. ...The best in the college game at running a team (in my opinion) is Trey Burke. He is a diminutive yet highly confident and skilled point guard. While not blessed with supreme athleticism or length, Burke closes the gap on the deficiencies with his high basketball I.Q., and leadership ability. Burke has an excellent 2.42-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and he can also put the ball in the basket. He averages 19.2 points per game. Sports Illustrated named Burke their National Player of the Year for 2012-13. 

Jalan West is mostly unheralded. 

Jalan West - Northwestern St. Freshman. 5'10" 178. ...The Southland Conference Freshman of the Year is one of two main reasons (DeQuan Hicks, the other), why Northwestern State is in the "big dance". West served up a gaudy 2.78-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season while making 83% of his foul shots, and leading his conference in steals. He was a red-shirt last season. 

Quinn Cook - Duke. Sophomore. 6'1" 175. ...Cook stepped up his offensive game this season and it helped make Duke a better team. Cook averaged 12 points and five assists in 2012-13 and maintained his outstanding 2.5-to-1 career assist-to-turnover ratio. He is solid not spectacular. I view him as a low-tier starter or dependable back-up point guard in the NBA whenever he finishes his NCAA career. 

Khalif Wyatt - Temple. Senior. 6'4" 215. ...Nobody in college basketball has as much "junk" in his game as Khalif Wyatt. He is the 2012-13 Atlantic 10 Player of the Year. Wyatt is a below-the-rim, savvy, crafty, skilled, and determined point guard that can score in a variety of ways. Wyatt hits circus shots with regularity. He improved his scoring average with each season at Temple, now hitting for 19.8 points per game. 

Lorenzo Brown - N.C. St. Junior. 6'5" 189. ...I've seen Lorenzo Brown dominate a game with his vision and court-sense. I've also seen Lorenzo Brown look disinterested and lazy. This season, his scoring, and rebounding are down and his turnovers are up. He enters the NCAA tournament having made just five of his last 25 field goal attempts. While most of that sounds negative, Brown has the tools to "flip the switch" and be brilliant. Due to his inconsistency - I view him as an NBA back-up at best. 

Weber is a defensive force.

Briante Weber - VCU. Sophomore. 6'3" 160. ...The Atlantic 10 Defensive Player of the Year is a certified pest. He averaged 2.8 steals per game in VCU's "havoc" defense. He only scores five points per game but his ability to make opponents uncomfortable is so strong that he deserves to be mentioned among the best point guards in the tournament. 

Hugh Greenwood - New Mexico. Sophomore. 6'3" 205. ...Greenwood is an Australian with experience as an international player. He starred on the Australian Under-19 team at the FIBA World Championships in Latvia in 2011, showing a high hoops IQ. He has a nice jumper and he is proficient as a three-point shooter (35% 3-pt). 

Aaron Craft - Ohio St. Junior. 6'2" 195. ...I started "scouting" college basketball in 1999. Since then - a small handful of players have passed through the NCAA ranks as "great defenders". I would put Aaron Craft at the top of that list alongside the likes of Shane Battier, Chris Singleton, and Kenyon Martin. Craft is full of energy. It is not unusual for him to play the entire 40-minute game. He is relentless on defense. He makes life miserable for opposing point guards, and as long as Craft is in the game, Ohio State has a chance to win. 

Shane Larkin - Miami. Sophomore. 5'11" 176. ...Larkin is the son of Hall of Fame shortstop, Barry Larkin.  Shane was a first team All-ACC selection this season due to his complete game. He is especially hard to stop on dribble penetration. He has tremendous quickness, and ability to turn the corner. Shane is only limited by his 5'11" size - which makes him a target of bigger guards. 

Rasheed Sulaimon - Duke. Freshman. 6'3" 175. ...Sulaimon actually plays shooting guard at Duke but he is a combo-guard that will likely lean toward the point position in the NBA. The McDonald's All-American is mature beyond his years. He shoots the ball well (81% FT, 37% 3-pt), while maintaining a solid assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.5-to-1. He scored 17 points in the second half of a Duke come from behind win over Ohio St. in late November. 

Phil Pressey - Missouri. Junior. 5'10" 168. ...The best vision in college hoops this season belongs to Phil Pressey. He is a playmaker's playmaker. His assist-to-turnover ratio is better than two-to-one despite the fact that he will "swing for fences" with spectacular passes. He ranks eighth in the nation in assists per game (7.1). He is fun to watch. 

Anthony Marshall - UNLV. Senior. 6'3" 200. ...Playing in his fourth straight NCAA Tournament, Anthony Marshall is as experienced as a point guard can be at this level. He plays the game at NBA speed. He is an instinctive player that could definitely tighten up his decision making and free throw shooting (67% FT). But Marshall has some unteachable intangibles in my opinion. He is tough-minded and not afraid to make a play.  

Kerron Johnson - Belmont. Senior. 6'1" 175. ...Johnson is in the "big dance" for the third consecutive season as the floor general of the Bruins. He was the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament MVP. He hustles, he runs his team, and he scores 13 points per game. 

Someone has to finish last

Lin and Rockets should be most giving.

As optimistic euphoria reaches into the stratosphere on the fourth day of October, NBA teams will soon face the cruel reality of losing. We've heard lots of chatter about who may be the best in the West but rarely do you read about or hear about who might stink. Truth be told, predicting who might be poop is tougher than you might think.

There are 15 teams in the Western Conference. We feel certain that three teams could sustain significant injuries and still make the playoffs. The Lakers, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City are safe. On the next tier below that trio - we would put the Clippers, and Denver. The ten that follow gets tricky. Two recent mainstays, Memphis and Dallas seem primed to take a step backward at the same time that Golden State, Utah, Sacramento, and Minnesota are getting better.

Two teams have pieces that should allow them to go down fighting. The Phoenix Suns have a roster that could produce a win on any given night in the NBA yet nobody really stands out as a superstar or even potential superstar. I like their solid international trio of Marcin Gortat, Goran Dragic, and Luis Scola. Maybe Dragic becomes a special point guard in the NBA. But "maybe" teamed with "solid" equals more losses than wins.

It is hard to look at Portland, with LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum and say with certainty that their team will stink. The smell emanates from the lack of depth and the fact that the Blazers have five NBA rookies.

Which leaves us with two teams that, even though they don't believe it, must be in-line to battle for last. New Orleans has Anthony Davis so surely they are better. But can the number one pick make the Hornets one of the top 20 teams in the NBA? It seems doubtful, even with the addition of Ryan Anderson and the possibility of Eric Gordon actually playing games (as of this writing, Gordon had missed his third consecutive day of practice with a lingering knee injury).

Houston has an abundance of young talent but the key word is "young". Too young, in my opinion, to win with any consistency in the NBA. The best possible scenario for the Rockets would be if Jeremy Lin is as good as he showed he could be in the "Linsanity" stage of last season. That seems doubtful. As much we like Terrence Jones, he is just a rookie. While each player has their individual merits, a front line of Chandler Parsons, Patrick Patterson, and Omer Asik hardly strikes fear into an NBA opponent.

So there it is. Someone has to be last. And I think it will be the Houston Rockets.

Rocky Mountain high reward?

Rocky should be happy this season!

An examination of the Denver Nuggets 2012-13 roster shows a team that has a ceiling that is nearly unlimited. How so, you ask? Well, if you believe in efficiency - and I do, you might already know that the Nuggets boast a potential starting lineup where each player ranks in the top-eleven in the NBA at their position. 

Ty Lawson ranks eleventh at point guard. It is a educated guess that Andre Iguodala will ultimately play the majority of his minutes at the TWO, and Danilo Gallinari at the THREE, with Kenneth Faried, and JaVale McGee up front. The newly acquired Iguodala ranked sixth in efficiency at small forward last season, while Gallinari was tenth at the same position. Many teams consider their TWO's and THREE's interchangeable - labeling them simply "wing players". Iguodala can certainly guard opposing shooting guards and his play-making ability is ideally suited for a guard. 

What may shock some folks is that Faried was second in power forward, per-minute efficiency. Only Kevin Love boasted a higher rating. While some who have not seen Faried play enough may see his ranking for his rookie season as an anomaly, we don't think it is. If you watch Faried play - you easily see how his energy is a benefit.  

McGee guards the rim

McGee meanwhile holds his own as the tenth most efficient center in the NBA. The issue with McGee is not efficiency. The issue with McGee is that he must be viewed as a bit of a risk. He simply has not shown the hoops i.q. that is needed to play consistently winning basketball. The 24 year-old center has perhaps unfairly been labeled to the point of caricature for his "brain-fades" which are the laughing stock of Shaquille O'Neal and the TNT crew. It's true. McGee does some silly things. But he also blocks shots and has a high points per minute rate. 

The key with McGee in my eyes is that he HAS improved. And now George Karl will have him for a full training camp and full season. I'm not expecting McGee to challenge the likes of Andrew Bynum, Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, and DeMarcus Cousins for a spot on the All-NBA team at center, but I do think McGee is potentially capable of having a consistent positive impact on a team. There is no reason other than the mental part of the game why McGee shouldn't go from being tenth in center efficiency to battling to be a part of the top-five. 

Will Randolph stick in Denver?

Denver's bench has a "risky" player on it as well. Golden State, New York and now Minnesota have passed on the obviously offensively talented Anthony Randolph. Randolph's per-minute efficiency was good enough last regular season to rank as a "starter" (23rd). It could have been higher if Randolph would simply pass up some outside shots for shots in the paint. I'm betting George Karl improves this 23 year-old kid. 

If Karl can't make Randolph better - maybe backup point guard Andre Miller can. Miller is still getting it done at a high level and if he didn't have Ty Lawson as a teammate - Miller would probably be a starter somewhere. Miller is excellent at feeding players around the hoop, and Randolph is excellent finishing at the rim. They might make a good combination. 

Finally, we have noticed improvement in Kosta Koufos' game. He is only 23 years old and if he continues to improve at the rate he is going, he will be a regular starter in the NBA one day. Koufos' regular season per minute efficiency in 2011-12 was better than the rating of Roy Hibbert, Nene, Tyson Chandler, and Marc Gasol. 

The summary for Denver is that they have some cats that today's kids might call "sketchy". But if the old master George Karl imparts his wisdom and McGee, and Randolph soak it up and mature even a little, they will propel Lawson, Iguodala, Faried, Miller and Gallinari into a Western power not to be slept on. 

Time for me to overreact

JT and T-Rob are not small forwards

Yesterday I blogged about the tendency for media to overreact at this time of the NBA calendar. There are no scores to report, or real games to cover - so every nuance is accentuated and exaggerated. That written, it is time for me to overreact to a small bit of Twitter information I read today from Jason Jones who covers the Sacramento Kings for the Sacramento Bee. Jones tweeted, "At #nbakings practice. Lineups are interesting. One had JT, Robinson and Cuz up front. Smart plans to experiment with matchups in preseason". 

This sounds like an experiemnt that will not work. There is no way that Jason Thompson can effectively play small forward in the NBA. So why experiment with it? Robinson, the Kings draft pick from Kansas, can guard opposing "threes" but offensively - Robinson is not a good enough deep shooter, ball-handler, or play-maker. Robinson did make 7 of his 14 three point attempts last season at Kansas - so I do not want to write him off as a potential perimeter threat. But Robinson historically has more turnovers than assists, and his 68% free throw shooting - to me is a better indication of his true shooting touch. In short, I don't think Robinson is small forward.  

Jason Thompson has no small forward in his game at all. Zero. His feet are too heavy to guard opposing SF's and offensively - Thompson lacks all skills needed in a SF. 

If you were really reaching you could say - Cousins, given his three-point shooting ability, could act as a periemeter player in certain offesnive sets - moving J.T. to center, and keeping Robinson at power forward. But if you did that - you are taking your best rebounder and moving him 20-plus feet from the hoop. 

So I do not get it. Why waste valuable repetitions in practice with a lineup that will always prevent you from presenting your best spacing? Why waste time with a lineup that will allow teams to simply "pack the paint" against you - given Thompson and Robinson's lack of periemeter shooting? Is it becuase you are just not familair enough with Robinson's game? Is it a "someone said I couldn't play this lineup" - pride kind of thing? 

October means NBA

Bynum: Does he care? 

Let's do this! The NBA season begins in 29 days and this excites us to no end. At this time of the year, optimism and overreaction reign supreme. In our 28th year of intently observing and analyzing the NBA we have learned that (at this time of the year) teams are too optimistic, and the media, and public are prone to overreaction. 

The Bynum addition to Philly is potentially HUGE. Bynum's efficiency rating was actually a fraction of a point better than Dwight Howard's in last season's shortened schedule. Despite losing mainstays Andre Iguodala, and Elton Brand, the Sixers starters became better "by the numbers" by adding Bynum and advancing Evan Turner into a more prominent role. 

On the common sense side of the Bynum equation, it is more than fair to wonder why he didn't take care of his knee situation sooner. Reports say Bynum had his knee treated as late as September. 

For what it is worth, a plugged-in source in Los Angeles says this of Bynum, " (A) dude I know works at a car shop where Bynum would buy his BMW's. They would ask him Lakers questions and he would say, 'That's not my life'. " ...The Source adds, "Literally, that's how Andrew Bynum feels about basketball. It's 'not his life' -  just a check."

It's a tip-off not a kick-off

I say this every season seemingly. We "tip-off" an NBA season; as opposed to the way The Sports Network puts it: "The Sixers, ... kick off their 2012-13 regular season by hosting Denver on Oct. 31." ...The preseason national television schedule for NBA hoops will tip-off domestically on Sunday. Orlando will face New Orleans on NBA-TV at 2:30 pm eastern. 

Nuggets channel Marquette

The Nuggets have new alternate uniforms that remind us of Marquette.  Denver joins San Antonio, New York, Portland, Brooklyn, and Charlotte as teams that have tweaked their look for 2012-13. 

The Bobcats have the dubious distinction of being ranked as our 30th best team in the NBA headed into this new campaign. They are a team without one player that ranks in the top-20 at their respective position. Their highest ranked player by last regular season's efficiency is Ramon Sessions - who rated 21st in the league at point guard. Hyper-active draft pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may prove to be a top-tier shooting guard in time but Charlotte's likely front court rotation of Byron Mullins, Bismack Biyombo, Brendan Haywood, and Tyrus Thomas is simply over-matched too often to think Charlotte can make any noise. 

Quote of the day comes from the Twitter feed of Jeff McDonald... "Tim Duncan on Tony Parker's link to summertime bar fight: "That's what we were going for this summer. To up our street cred."

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/10/01/4870989/sixers-c-bynum-sidelined-with.html#storylink=cpy

Las Vegas Summer League 2012 Awards

"It's just summer league.", said Geoff Petrie - Sacramento's Kings President of Basketball Operations. This was a couple years back in a brief conversation. His words should never be under-valued. NBA Summer League - while light years better in 2012 than it was in, say, 1988, is still largely made up of players who will NOT sniff an NBA roster. Nevertheless our love for basketball and curiosity for how players we've followed will fare in this organized setting is compelling enough for us to invest a significant amount of time in scouting the games. 

Each year of the Las Vegas Summer League - we do a "stat audit" after the dust has settled to see if what we thought we were seeing with the naked eye - matches what the numbers say. I justify the time and effort by simply wanting to be as informed as possible about all prospects. I continue to be a strong believer in being "data informed". When you can combine, serious observation (with note-taking), data, and a dash of common-sense - you become an educated scout. And sometimes the educated scout disagrees with the "herd". The "herd" in this instance is whatever was said, and repeated on "mass-media" websites such as NBA-TV, NBA.com, ESPN.com, etc..., ...All you really need to know about what you are about to read is that we are not paid by any team, agent, or media outlet. We watched and took notes on games, and then followed up each day with a report on the most efficient players at each position. The final step of this evaluation was to review notes, and manually punch in the numbers for the 246 players that played at least 40 minutes. ...Our final thoughts - with all things considered are listed below. 

We thought Terrence Jones was terrific. 

Our MVP: Terrence Jones – Houston. …Jones averaged 18 points and eight rebounds on 50% FG, 76% FT, and 33% 3-pt. The Rockets were 4-1.  Jones’ efficiency was a ridiculously good .778 in five games. He started just two of the games.  He had more assists than turnovers, and finished third in points per minute, and fifth in rebounds per minute. 

Our First Team All Las Vegas Summer League:

PG: Josh Selby – Memphis. …Selby posted the highest efficiency rating (for those who played over 78 minutes) of the LVSL. He was officially named co-MVP (with Damian Lillard). Selby averaged 24 points per game on 55% FG, 89% FT. He made 27 threes on 64% 3-pt fg. I have a rule (for summer league or ANY league) that I can not choose a league most valuable player from a team with a losing record. Memphis went 2-3. 

SG: Damian Lillard – Portland. …Lillard averaged 26.5 points per game! He also had 5.3 assists, and four rebounds each contest. He showed the ability to play with a "pro's pace". He hit difficult shots with both hands while showing he understands how to run a team, and manage the clock. 

SF:  Adam Morrison – Clippers. …Morrison scored 20 points per game while snaring five rebounds each contest. He shot well: 55% FG, 61% 3-pt., 78% FT.  

       

PF: Malcolm Thomas – Bulls. …Thomas was a rebounding machine in Vegas. He averaged 12.4 boards to go with 11.4 points per game.  He shot 53% FG, and 78% FT.

C:  Donatas Motiejunas – Houston.  …Motiejunas scored 16 points and grabbed 7.8 rebounds per game. He shot 62% FG. The Rockets were 4-1.

Our Second Team All Las Vegas Summer League: 

PG: Dionte Christmas – Boston. …Christmas averaged 12 points, six rebounds, and four assists. His assist-to-turnover ratio was better than 3-to-1.  

Harris played smartly

SG: Terrel Harris – Miami. …Harris played ball at a high level in Las Vegas. He scored 15.5 ppg, and he was a thief – with 3.5 steals per game.  His assist-to-turnover ratio was over 4-to-1. He hit 17-19 free throws (89%). 

SF: Jordan Hamilton – Denver.  …Hamilton averaged 19.2 points, and 6.4 rebounds. He displayed playmaking skills with a 1.5-to-1 ast-to-turnover ratio.

PF: Markieff Morris – Phoenix. …Morris was a shade under “20 & 10”. He averaged 19.8 ppg, and 9.8 rpg in five games. He was 26 of 29 from the FT line (89.7%).  

C:  Bernard James – Dallas. James was as advertised defensively. He blocked 2.6 shots per game, and grabbed nine rebounds per game. He scored ten ppg – on 60% FG.  

Top five players per position by efficiency. …78 minutes played minimum.      

Point Guards	Shooting Guards	Small Forwards	Power Forwards	Centers
Josh Selby .982	Terrel Harris .686	Terrence Jones .778	Malcolm Thomas .734	Donatas Motiejunas .740
Dionte Christmas .629	Coby Karl .655	Adam Morrison .607	Markieff Morris .712	Bernard James .702
Damian Lillard .626	Jordan Hamilton .579	Jimmy Butler .563	Samardo Samuels .692	Keith Benson .661
Dominique Jones .556	Jeremy Lamb .534	Tobias Harris .557	Ed Davis .650	Tyler Zeller .655
Aaron Miles .554	Kent Bazemore .524	Drew Viney .539	Denzel Bowles .630	John Henson .592

They did well with the minutes they were given. This is a list of the top seven efficiency ratings of those who played between 40-77 minutes.

Akognon: scoring machine!

Josh Akognon – SAC .982 (Akognon was a scoring machine in his 55 minutes. He scored 58 points and averaged 19 a game off the bench.)

Nolan Smith – POR .780

Luke Harangody – CLE .778

Klay Thompson – GSW .763

Talor Battle – LAC .671

Jarrid Famous – MIL .646

Dexter Pittman – MIA .645

They didn’t play well… This is a list of the five lowest efficiency ratings of guys that played at least 78 minutes…

Marquis Teague – CHI .095

Ramone Moore – CHI .103

Antoine Wright – LAC .148

Darius Johnson-Odom – LAL .152

Chris Smith – NYK .165

Scorers …This a list of the top-eight in points per minute (78 minutes minimum).

Josh Selby – MEM .883 ppm

Damian Lillard – POR .809 ppm

Terrence Jones – HOU .722 ppm

Jeremy Lamb – HOU .685 ppm

Wes Johnson – MIN .683 ppm

Adam Morrison – LAC .667 ppm

Donatas Motiejunas – HOU .663 ppm

Markieff Morris – PHX .647 ppm

Rebounders …This is a list of the top-eight in rebounds per minute (78 minutes minimum).

Malcolm Thomas – CHI .446 rpm

Denzel Bowles – NO .407 rpm

Bernard James – DAL .344 rpm

Ed Davis – TOR .343 rpm

Terrence Jones – HOU .341 rpm

Eric Dawson – SA .333 rpm

Thomas Robinson – SAC .331 rpm

Samardo Samuels – CLE .327 rpm 

Karl was virtually mistake free.

Ball-Handlers / Decision Makers  …This is a list of the top-eight assist-to-turnover ratios (78 minutes minimum)

Coby Karl – MIN 7.5 to 1

Marcus Hubbard – LAC 7 to 1

Kemba Walker – CHA 5.8 to 1

Zoran Dragic – HOU 5 to 1

Terrel Harris – MIA 4.5 to 1

Aaron Miles – MIL 4 to 1

Jordan Taylor – ATL 3.5 to 1

Dionte Christmas – BOS 3.33 to 1

They get to the line! …This is a list of the top-eight in free throw attempts per minute (78 minutes minimum)

Derrick Williams - MIN .389

Ed Davis – TOR .292

Jimmer Fredette – SAC .278

Jimmy Butler – CHI .275

Thomas Robinson – SAC .264

Samardo Samuels – CLE .250

Norris Cole – MIA .242

Bradley Beal – WA .235

Rim Protectors / Defenders …This is a list of the top-eight in blocked shots per minute (78 minutes minimum)

Bernard James – DAL .10

Festus Ezeli – GSW .10

Keith Benson – ATL .09

Henry Sims – CHI .09

Hilton Armstrong – LAC .09

Bismack Biyombo – CHA .09

Kent Bazemore – GSW .09

Mitchell Watt – MEM .08